Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.813270 25.628463 30.306338 36.602484 45.085734 5.649347e+01 73.722067
2025-01-05 16.739988 20.861521 26.423509 34.846220 48.045963 6.960077e+01 112.232442
2025-01-12 13.699696 17.617953 23.191274 32.230372 47.803079 7.688964e+01 148.321320
2025-01-19 11.752166 15.449538 20.909418 30.224845 47.498698 8.359722e+01 192.467411
2025-01-26 11.764983 16.054322 22.812607 35.449657 62.450499 1.341700e+02 508.140315
2025-02-02 11.220816 15.700758 23.081044 37.824036 72.991446 1.885660e+02 1406.920417
2025-02-09 10.129994 14.327132 21.376171 35.878254 72.297523 2.058242e+02 2577.088014
2025-02-16 9.704488 13.981266 21.409624 37.517710 82.046200 2.865176e+02 32991.680332
2025-02-23 9.160231 13.369002 20.855490 37.723945 87.911165 3.680075e+02 NaN
2025-03-02 8.653036 12.765709 20.229375 37.609744 92.838667 4.678260e+02 NaN
2025-03-09 8.277547 12.354009 19.914372 38.173501 100.771464 6.510836e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 7.729993 11.589311 18.808559 36.500438 99.088725 7.191660e+02 NaN
2025-03-23 7.340921 11.111164 18.292252 36.448261 105.271597 1.022572e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 6.842828 10.398335 17.221778 34.703339 102.999463 1.158080e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 6.321664 9.608769 15.920120 32.103249 95.448650 1.083758e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 5.895453 8.970390 14.886289 30.109390 90.187423 1.068365e+03 NaN
2025-04-20 6.067023 9.451368 16.265647 35.303041 127.229497 7.800768e+03 NaN
2025-04-27 5.996560 9.465818 16.634569 37.662462 153.527665 1.369035e+06 NaN
2025-05-04 5.663141 8.946355 15.740945 35.728973 146.766284 1.564337e+07 NaN
2025-05-11 5.567488 8.886641 15.897985 37.358093 171.254159 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.397112 8.666599 15.656463 37.563011 184.634641 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.222224 8.426526 15.344081 37.449540 195.453173 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 5.092848 8.270351 15.218955 38.009685 215.857314 NaN NaN